A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
