Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
